Election Information

Which Democratic Candidate Had The Biggest Surge In Popularity This Year?

Voters in the primaries might like more than one candidate, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are undecided. They might feel strongly about a particular person winning the nomination, but they could still have a favorable opinion of multiple contenders. So just how popular are each of the Democratic candidates right now? And how have…

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What The Latest Polling On Trump’s Removal Does (And Doesn’t) Mean

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week It was a historic week in the U.S. Senate, as the impeachment trial of President Trump got underway. We got opening arguments, fights over decorum, dealmaking and more. We also got a bunch of new polls measuring how Americans felt about all this, and…

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Election Update: What Are The Chances Of A Brokered Convention?

A brokered convention is not a likely occurrence, exactly. But it’s not unlikely, either. It’s roughly as likely as the Tennessee Titans beating the Baltimore Ravens earlier this month, or Donald Trump winning the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. According to the FiveThirtyEight primary model, there’s a 15 percent chance that no Democrat…

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The Ups And Downs Of Candidate Popularity, In 4 Charts

Graphics by Sakshi Jain Once more, with feeling: People are a lot more apt to change their mind in primaries than in general elections. That’s because, when all the candidates in the race are members of the same party, voters often like several of them, and the 2020 presidential primary is no exception. High favorability…

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Election Update: It’s Cherry-Picking Season

As of our most recent Election Update this weekend, I noted that polls since last week’s debate had been — this is a scientific term — “pretty weird.” Well, it’s time to revise that statement. There have been a whole bunch of new polls over the past couple of days. And they’ve been not just…

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Why People Keep Asking Elizabeth Warren Whether She Can Win

At a campaign event in southeastern Iowa in December, a graduate student named Charlotte Moser was waiting to ask Sen. Elizabeth Warren a question. As we sat and talked in a crowded union hall before the event began, Charlotte told me she felt a little guilty that it wasn’t about Warren’s plans or policies. But…

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Senate Impeachment Trial: Live Updates And Analysis

Senate Impeachment Trial: Live Updates And Analysis | FiveThirtyEight Skip to main content Senate Impeachment Trial: Live Updates And Analysis12:34 PMBy FiveThirtyEight Want the latest politics news? Get it in your inbox. You are now subscribed!

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What Will We Learn From Trump’s Impeachment Trial?

The Senate impeachment trial of President Trump is finally kicking off this week. And while the trial itself is a momentous political event, the whole process feels a bit like having peeked at the last few pages of a book: We don’t know exactly how the plot will unfold, but we already know where it…

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